Fed Voice Analyst
NLP on FOMC statements and Fed governor speeches. Detects hawkish/dovish shifts via language delta vs prior cadence.
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Thesis: Subtle word-choice shifts in Fed communications signal policy-stance changes weeks before they're reflected in dot plots or action. Data source: federalreserve.gov — FOMC statements, minutes, speeches all free and downloadable as HTML/PDF. Methodology: Hawkish/dovish scoring via FOMC-specific lexicon (trained on historical statements). Compute delta vs rolling 12-meeting mean. Statistically significant deltas signal policy drift. Academic evidence: Hansen & McMahon (2016), *Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication,* Journal of International Economics. Shapiro & Wilson (2019), *Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives,* SF Fed Working Paper. Status: Pending. Lexicon and pipeline not yet built.
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